To keep one’s political allies onside, it helps to have the right enemies. Especially when one is in trouble. And Prime Minister Boris Johnson is in serious trouble. The scandal resulting from his attendance at parties during COVID lockdowns and from the perception that he lied about it has taken a toll on Johnson’s popularity. His aggressive support for Ukraine against Russian invaders hasn’t done enough to boost his support.

For now, says Eurasia Group Europe expert Mujtaba Rahman, “a silent majority within Johnson’s Conservative Party refuse to support him but have not yet decided to try to oust him.” Johnson might survive if he makes it to summer without a leadership challenge. But, “a growing number of critics within his party believe the crunch moment is coming sooner than that,” warns Rahman.

Crunch time may begin next Thursday, May 5, after votes are counted from local elections across the UK. The results will be widely judged as a referendum on Johnson’s government, and poor Conservative Party performance could push him to the edge of a political cliff.

One of the most highly anticipated local votes will unfold in Northern Ireland, where the latest polls suggest Sinn Féin will win the most seats for the first time in the assembly’s history. If so, the importance will be less practical than symbolic. The party that comes first must share power with rivals, and Sinn Féin has based its campaign more on pocketbook issues than on its long-term support for Irish reunification. But with the Scottish National Party holding its dominant position in Scotland, a Sinn Féin win would, for the first time, see the legislatures of both Scotland and Northern Ireland led by parties that are seeking an exit from the United Kingdom.

And that might be embarrassing enough for the government to persuade reluctant Tories to send Boris Johnson packing. To avoid that fate, the prime minister looks set to pick a fight with his favorite foil: Brussels. That’s why, Rahman warns, “the risk of a major UK-EU dispute over the Northern Ireland Protocol is on the rise.”

The protocol, you might remember, is the arrangement that Johnson’s government agreed to with the EU that effectively created a customs border in the Irish Sea for goods traveling between Britain, Northern Ireland, and the EU. Its purpose was to avoid the re-establishment of a hard border between the Republic of Ireland, still an EU member, and Northern Ireland, a part of the UK. Johnson says the deal was meant to be temporary, but there is still no clear way of fixing the problem it was meant to solve.

Johnson’s government is now drafting a law that would give UK officials the power to override that part of the Brexit deal, challenging the EU to either renegotiate or try to solve the border problem itself. Critics charge that such a move would violate international law. “Even the threat of legislation will be judged incendiary by the EU,” says Rahman.

Will this maneuver save Johnson’s political career? Probably not. He promised before the last election to “get Brexit done.” Another fight with the EU, particularly at a moment when many consider Western unity in response to Russia’s war in Ukraine to be critical, won’t score him enough points with fed-up former allies within his party.

More to the point, another fight with his favorite villains – European bureaucrats and anti-Brexit rivals at home – probably isn’t enough to distract voters from the economic headaches and personal scandals that have kept Johnson’s job approval below 30% for the past six months.

Is Russia’s gas strategy backfiring?

European natural gas prices soared on Wednesday after Russia turned off the gas taps to Bulgaria and Poland. Both countries, which are members of the EU and NATO, had refused to meet Vladimir Putin's recent demand that any countries deemed "unfriendly" to Moscow must pay for Russian gas in rubles. So far, Hungary is the only EU member state willing to do that, but it accounts for just a tiny portion of overall Russian gas sales to Europe. The bigger problem is whether private companies will defy their governments by agreeing to pay in rubles — and at least four have reportedly agreed to do so. For now, larger European countries like Germany have promised they'll share their gas supplies with Bulgaria and Poland so long as the Russian pipes remain closed. If that solidarity holds, and if the EU continues with plans to dramatically reduce its reliance on Russian gas, Moscow's leverage over the Europeans might not be as strong as Putin thought. That said, he may be betting that European consumers — read: voters — won't be willing to put up with higher prices indefinitely, particularly once winter rolls around again. Natural gas stories tend to play out over long periods of time, and this one will be no exception.

Will the EU cut off Hungary?

The European Union and Hungary have long been at loggerheads over Budapest’s deteriorating democratic track record under PM Viktor Orbán and his right-wing Fidesz Party. Brussels upped the ante this week by triggering a mechanism that would allow it to withhold several billion dollars in funds from Budapest. Though details remain unclear, Brussels said that the move pertains to government corruption and the Hungarian judiciary's failure to crack down on graft. Orban, a right-wing populist who has proudly dubbed Hungary an “illiberal democracy,” recently won reelection, much to the dismay of bureaucrats in Brussels who have long accused his party of diluting judicial independence, cracking down on the press, and gerrymandering. Budapest will now have two months to respond to the motion, which will need a “qualified majority” to pass – meaning it must be backed by 55% of EU countries representing 65% of the bloc’s population. The timing is very bad for Orban, who is trying to prop up Hungary’s sagging economy – which is currently experiencing its highest inflation rate in 15 years – and was relying on EU funds for a post-pandemic boost.

Erdogan visits Saudi Arabia to bolster ties

In the latest sign of an ongoing detente between Ankara and Riyadh, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is set to visit Saudi Arabia on Thursday to meet with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Relations between the two states have long been strained, in large part because Riyadh accused Turkey of backing terror groups and supporting Qatar in its long-running diplomatic dispute with Saudi Arabia. Turkey-Saudi ties got even worse after journalist Jamal Khashoggi was killed by Saudi operatives in Istanbul in 2018, leading to mutual recriminations and Riyadh’s blocking of most Turkish imports. But improving ties with the Gulf states, as well as with Egypt and Israel, has been central to Erdogan’s plan to revitalize his country’s ailing economy (hyperinflation recently surpassed 60%). As part of a detente, Turkey recently acquiesced to Saudi demands, allowing the Khashoggi murder trial to be held in Riyadh (the defendants were being tried in absentia anyway). This irked human rights groups but appears to have paid off for Erdogan: Turkish exports to Saudi increased by 215% in March compared to the same time last year, and economic cooperation between the two regional powers looks likely to expand.

For arms manufacturers, war is great for business. Even before Russia invaded Ukraine, global military spending was already on an upswing, to the tune of $2 trillion last year. Now, the US and its allies are splashing around a lot of dough to send the Ukrainians weapons to defend themselves against the Russians — to the delight of anyone who owns shares of the companies that make those arms. We take a look at how the stock prices of the world's top defense companies have performed in 2022 so far.

There’s not an off-ramp in sight, and that’s a problem. More than 60 days into the conflict in Ukraine, Ian Bremmer believes the chances for a negotiated settlement are looking slim.

He is not sympathetic to Putin's position at all. The Russians are 100% responsible for this invasion, but Moscow’s ability to destabilize — not just Ukraine, but also a lot of countries across the transatlantic relationship — is real and hasn't yet been experienced or even tested. And Ian fears that we are going to be testing that moving forward.

2/3: Two-thirds of workers at a major semiconductor company in Shanghai haven't gone home since China's largest city locked down a month ago. Xi Jinping won’t let zero-COVID stop Chinese factories from churning out chips to sustain the country's supply while the world is still running low.

5: The tiny European principality of Liechtenstein punched way above its diplomatic weight on Tuesday by getting the UN General Assembly to pass its resolution obliging the five permanent members of the Security Council — China, France, Russia, the UK, and the US — to justify their vetoes. China and Russia were not amused.

26: India has bought some 26 million barrels of Russian oil since the war in Ukraine began — more than it purchased all last year. Why? The Indians, who remain ambivalent on Russia's invasion, are getting it at a steep discount.