Pelosi takes final bow

Nancy Pelosi is standing down as leader of the Democratic Party in the US House, but she’ll remain in Congress as a representative of San Francisco. She was both the first woman to serve in the ultra-powerful role of House Speaker and a hate figure for many on the right. Pelosi’s personal toughness, Herculean fundraising prowess, and ability to hold together the typically fractious Democratic Party in the House will remain her legacy for Democrats. For Republicans, seeing her pass the gavel to one of their own in January will mark a moment of triumph in an otherwise disappointing midterm performance. In announcing her plans, Pelosi noted that “the hour has come for a new generation to lead the Democratic caucus.” At a moment when both parties are led by politicians of advancing age, that’s a big step – and a trend we’ll be watching closely as a new Congress takes shape and the next race for the White House begins. Eurasia Group US Managing Director Jon Lieber says his bet is on 52-year-old Hakeem Jeffries taking the Democratic reins. If Jeffries gets the job, he'll make history as the first Black politician to lead a party in Congress.

The fate of an endangered bluebird

Are these possibly the final hours for Twitter? Will the social media company, recently purchased and immediately upended by Elon Musk, survive longer than the proverbial head of lettuce? No one really knows now, after the company announced late Thursday that its offices would be closed until Monday as it deals with mass resignations. The wave of departures was triggered by Musk’s hardass demand earlier this week that employees agree to a “hardcore” work environment or take three months of severance and be gone. Hundreds, if not thousands, evidently took option two. Taken alongside an earlier wave of Musk’s planned layoffs, some estimates say as many as three-quarters of the company’s workers could be gone now. Will Musk take the L and backtrack on his “hardcore” demand, or will he double down and try to run the company with a skeleton crew? Regardless, just weeks into the era of Musk, Twitter is looking less like the free speech “town square” that he envisioned and more like the town circus.

Malaysia’s election head-scratcher

Malaysians go to the polls Sunday to vote in their first national election since 2018, when the opposition Patakan Harapan Party ended the Barisan Nasional coalition's 60-year stranglehold on power after then-PM Najib Razak got busted in the billion-dollar 1MDB corruption scandal. Since then, though, Patakan has lost its mojo due to infighting and defections to Najib's own UMNO party, which — we kid you not — is now part of the coalition government. Further complicating things is that Patakan's new leader is Najib's old mentor, former PM Mahathir Mohamad, who's running for a seat in parliament — and perhaps the premiership for the third time — at the ripe young age of ... 97. Meanwhile, Najib is behind bars. Malaysian politics take complicated to a whole new level, but here's the gist: It's unlikely any party will get an outright majority, so the most likely outcome is a hung parliament that'll result in another shaky coalition or a fresh election.

Rage fuels Iran protests

“We’ll fight! We’ll die! We’ll take back Iran!” protesters are chanting in Tehran these days. And indeed, many have fought and died amid widespread demonstrations against Iran’s repressive regime and supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The country has been rocked by protests since the in-custody death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in September after she was reportedly beaten for wearing her hijab “improperly.” The last few days have also seen commemorative demonstrations to mark the deadly Nov. 2019 protests that erupted over fuel prices. The Islamic Republic says it's growing concerned by the increasing violence involved in demonstrations, with government rhetoric referring to “armed” protesters as “separatists” and even “terrorists.” Thousands have been arrested, and at least four protesters have been sentenced to death. We’ll be watching this weekend with concern for how heated and deadly things get.

Britain braces for economic hardship

Americans were watching as Donald Trump announced his presidential candidacy on Tuesday night, but Trump’s entry into the race also grabbed the attention of political leaders around the globe.

It’s not hard to understand why. During his presidency (2017-2021), Trump was the first US leader since the 1930s to question the assumption that a global leadership role for Washington was good for Americans. In the process, he tried to fundamentally redefine relationships with friends and foes on a scale that caught world leaders off guard.

Some Americans, both Democrats and Republicans, see Trump as damaged political goods and don’t believe he can win. But most world leaders know it’s dangerous to underestimate Donald Trump or the personal connection millions of Americans feel with him. They know they must prepare for the possibility of Trump 2.0.

In Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky surely wants to see Trump defeated. He knows there are many Republicans who reject Trump’s argument that US military and financial support for Ukraine’s war effort is too expensive for American taxpayers, but he also knows that a Trump victory might change minds and policy.

In Russia, President Vladimir Putin would love to see Trump’s return, not just because it might weaken or end US support for Ukraine, but because Trump’s antagonism toward many European governments, his broader skepticism about the value of NATO, and his affinity for Putin would offer a welcome alternative to any other potential candidate.

In most European capitals, a Trump win would be very bad news. The EU is already managing a serious economic slowdown, paying more for defense against Russia, and completely redrawing its energy map. Another Trump assault on transatlantic relations could only make matters worse. But a Trump victory would advance the argument of French President Emmanuel Macron and others that Europe needs its own foreign and defense policy, one that doesn’t depend on Washington. And European populists would welcome the return of Trump, who many see as a friend and source of encouragement.

In China, leaders will have mixed feelings. President Xi Jinping wants a US president he can negotiate with, and he knows a Trump administration might offer fewer lectures about how China should manage its economy, its foreign policy, and its approach to human rights at home. Xi would also welcome more friction between the US and Europe. But he also knows China remains one of Trump’s favorite political targets and that the tariffs Washington continues to enforce against China have Trump’s name on them.

In Japan and South Korea, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and President Yoon Suk-yeol are hoping to avoid more demands from Trump that they pay the US much more for their defense, and both are wary of Trump’s history of outreach to North Korea’s Kim Jong-un.

In Iran, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wants no part of a Trump administration that would treat his country as the pariah of the Middle East, though Saudi Arabia’s future king, Mohammed bin Salman would like that very much. The Biden administration has tried unsuccessfully to engage Iran and scorn the Saudis. Leaders in Tehran and Riyadh know Trump would do the opposite.

In Canada and Mexico, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and President Andrés Manuel López Obrador know that a Trump presidency would mean more aggressive renegotiations of trade relations. Both leaders have enough challenges at home without that.

For all these leaders, the future of their relationships with Washington isn’t simply a matter of whether Trump wins the 2024 election or even just the Republican nomination. They also know his candidacy could influence the positions of other candidates on issues they care about.

That’s why all of them will be watching closely as the next race for the White House begins to take shape.

US President Joe Biden learns that pardoning turkeys in this economy ain’t easy.

Watch the latest Puppet Regime here.

134: That's how many developing countries are threatening to walk out of the COP27 climate summit in Sharm el-Skeikh, Egypt, if wealthy nations don't agree to establish a "loss and damage" fund to compensate them for climate change. It's unlikely there will be a deal before the gathering ends today.

4: A UN- and Turkey-brokered deal for Russia to allow shipments of grain from Ukraine's Black Sea ports, which was due to expire Saturday, has been extended for four months. Kyiv wanted a full year, but this is still good news to help mitigate a global food crisis aggravated by Russia's war in Ukraine.

40: The new CEO of bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX says he's never seen anything worse in more than 40 years of restructuring distressed firms, including Enron. The shambolic collapse of FTX is already having international ripples, with Singapore writing down $275 million in funds.

3: Three men — two Russians and a Ukrainian — were sentenced in absentia to life in prison Thursday by a Dutch court for shooting down the MH17 flight over Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine in 2014, killing all 298 passengers. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hailed the verdict, but the Kremlin rejected it, calling it "scandalous."

Leaders from the world’s biggest economies met in Bali this week for the G-20. Was it a success? For all the talk about missiles hitting Kyiv and even Poland this week, there’s also pondering over what Russia-Ukraine peace talks might look like if they’re led by China. And Mexico’s democracy seems to be facing an existential test. Will it endure?

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