Today we zig zag through the atmosphere, take to the battlefield in Ethiopia, and bury coal in Portugal. Also, our weekly humpday recommendations.

Note that in observance of the US Thanksgiving holiday, Signal will be dark until next Monday. See you then!

-Alex Kliment

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Today we zig zag through the atmosphere, take to the battlefield in Ethiopia, and bury coal in Portugal. Also, our weekly humpday recommendations.

Note that in observance of the US Thanksgiving holiday, Signal will be dark until next Monday. See you then!

-Alex Kliment

   

Over the past few months, US officials have become increasingly alarmed about a new type of killing machines called "hypersonic weapons."

The top US General, Mark Milley, said that China's successful test of an advanced hypersonic weapon earlier this year was "very close" to a "Sputnik moment" – referring to the Soviet Union's surprise launch of the world's first artificial satellite in 1957, which raised fears that the US was lagging behind a formidable technological rival.


Should you be worried? Yes, but perhaps not for the reasons you might think.

First, what are hypersonic weapons? When people talk about hypersonic weapons today, they're generally referring to two things:

Jet-powered missiles that fly at extreme speeds. These missiles travel very close to the surface of the earth. Most of today's cruise missiles do this too, but they do not travel faster than sound. Hypersonics, by contrast, travel at a minimum of five times the speed of sound.

Hypersonic glide vehicles, which have no engines of their own.
They are carried high up into the atmosphere by another rocket and then released to glide, like hypersonic paper airplanes, until they strike their targets.

These weapons can be armed with nuclear warheads, and their main, terrifying new feature – besides their speed – is their maneuverability.

Unlike most of today's missiles, which travel along a predictable trajectory after launch, hypersonics can zig and zag. In baseball terms, it's the difference between a long throw from an outfielder, which you can line up and catch, and a knuckleball that dances through the atmosphere like a butterfly before destroying your aircraft carrier.

So far, only three countries have advanced hypersonic weapons programs. China and Russia have successfully tested, and likely deployed, hypersonics, some of which are nuclear capable. They say that these programs are a direct response to US missile defense systems, which Washington has been building for more than twenty years. The United States itself is also developing hypersonic missiles, with a focus on non-nuclear ones which actually have to be more precise. So far the US has deployed nothing. India, France, Australia, Germany, and Japan all have earlier stage hypersonic programs as well.

Why are people worried about these weapons? Some have pointed out that hypersonic weapons can easily evade missile defense systems. This is because their flight patterns are more unpredictable, and because their low altitudes make them harder to detect than ICBMs, which trace big high ballistic arcs that can be seen from thousands of miles away .

But the truth is that a missile defense system like the US' already fails 6 out of 10 times even in highly controlled tests with ICBMs. In other words, the existing Russian and Chinese arsenals of ICBMs are more than sufficient to overwhelm any missile defenses. Still, the US insistence on continuing to build missile defense capabilities is one reason why the Russians and Chinese are so keen to develop evasive new hypersonic weapons in the first place.

As a result, nuclear deterrence is still based on the idea of mutually assured destruction. "We can't stop you from hitting us. But we can hit you back and destroy you, so don't do it."

There are, however, two big worries with hypersonics.

They make catastrophic miscalculations much more likely. Because they arrive so much faster and are more unpredictable than conventional ballistic or cruise missiles, they give officials and generals less time to assess a threat and decide on an appropriate response. That not only increases the stakes – and risks – in the heat of the moment, it also makes wary countries more likely to strike first so that they don't get caught off-guard by a hypersonic attack, nuclear or not.

Also, there are no global rules for hypersonic weapons. Current arms control treaties have nothing to say about them. Like other frontier military technologies – such as artificial intelligence weapons or cyberattacks – there are no limits on testing or deployment, no understandings about proportional retaliation, and no mechanisms in place to exchange information about who has what weapons and where.

The New START pact between Russia and the US, for example, is the last significant strategic arms control agreement in the world: it doesn't cover hypersonics. Even if it did, China has not signed it.

Looking back. The world lived through decades of duck-and-cover fear before exploring sensible nuclear arms control deals, and even that took a near-miss like the Cuban missile crisis.

Looking ahead. We are still only in the earliest days of the hypersonic weapons era. Will it take a new missile crisis to get world leaders to make rules for these things?


 
 

 
 
   

Why did Chinese tennis star Peng Shuai suddenly reappear for a video chat last weekend with the IOC? Ian Bremmer says that the scandal – in which Peng disappeared for weeks after accusing a former Vice Premier of sexual assault – was becoming a headache for Beijing in the lead up to the Winter Olympics. But the CCP, he says, did only the absolute minimum by producing Peng for an IOC call – it's still not clear she is safe.

And what's the deal with that planned Bitcoin city in El Salvador? For Bremmer, the country's young populist President Nayib Bukele is embracing crypto because he wants to break his country's reliance on the US dollar, particularly because El Salvador is having trouble getting more money from the IMF.

Watch the World in 60 Seconds clip here for Ian's full insights on global politics.


 
 

 
 
   

Visit Microsoft on The Issues for a front-row seat to see how Microsoft is thinking about the future of sustainability, accessibility, cybersecurity and more. Check back regularly to watch videos, and read blogs and feature stories to see how Microsoft is approaching the issues that matter most. For the latest, visit Microsoft on the Issues.


 
 

 
 
   

Biden's oil dilemma. The Biden administration says it will release some 50 million barrels of crude from US stockpiles in a bid to reign in soaring gasoline prices. Similar moves were made by Japan, South Korea, and China in recent days as global energy prices rise and supplies remain scarce in many places amid the ongoing economic recovery. Pain at the gas pump and broader inflation concerns in the US have contributed to Biden's tanking poll numbers. With Republicans poised to do well in next year's midterm elections, the president is under pressure to turn things around fast. But Biden has already come under fire from environmental groups, who say the president's move flies in the face of his Glasgow commitments to reduce rather than boost fossil fuel consumption. But in domestic politics, bread-and-butter issues are paramount, and if Biden doesn't "fix" the gas problem hurting American families, the Democrats could suffer a beating at the polls. What's more, Biden has also angered the 23-nation Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which worries that extra US oil on the market will bring down prices for their own crude. Now the organization is warning that it might renege on an earlier promise to produce more oil.


Abiy Ahmed takes to the battlefield. Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed, a Nobel Peace Prize winner who has also been accused of leading a civil war where crimes against humanity have been committed, says he will personally lead the army "on the battlefield" as the rival Tigray People's Liberation Force make inroads towards the capital Addis Ababa. Abiy has called for "martyrdom" in his year-long conflict with the TPLF, who dominated Ethiopian politics for decades before Abiy took power in 2018. Abiy, a former soldier who recently called on all able people to fight, is not messing around: he said that regional and national government officials will take over his duties while he takes up arms. This latest development in a civil war that's killed tens of thousands and displaced some 2 million people comes just weeks after reports that Tigrayan rebels captured key territory around the capital and suggests that Abiy's (political) days may be numbered.

Are Iran nuclear talks collapsing? An Iranian delegation will meet with European, Russian, and Chinese counterparts in the coming days for the first time since Iran's hardline President Ebrahim Raisi took office this summer. The Americans will be in Vienna too, but they won't attend face-to-face meetings with the Iranians. Six months ago, the Biden administration was optimistic that it could revive the 2015 nuclear deal, but that's in doubt now, as the sides remain very far apart. Iran continues to enrich uranium to near bomb-making levels, while denying access to international inspectors. Meanwhile, the Biden administration won't lift sanctions until Tehran stops enrichment and has balked at Iran's (impossible) demand for guarantees that future US administrations won't impose economic sanctions. With prospects for a comprehensive deal fading, the US is reportedly already considering alternatives, including an interim deal that would simply freeze the status quo. That might be better than nothing, but according to some estimates, Tehran is already just weeks away from being able to develop a nuclear weapon meaning that the status quo is a dangerous one.


 
 

 
 
   

Make: a list, a poem, a walk, or a drawing. All of these are ways to exercise what Tish Harrison Warren calls our "Thankfulness muscles." As the US prepares to celebrate a holiday that's ostensibly about gratitude, give em a work out. Here's how. – Alex

Watch: George Carlin – The late great George Carlin was an entirely original blend of observant, acerbic, caustic, empathetic, angry and brilliantly funny. Here's eight minutes of the man doing what he did best. – Willis

Listen: Seinabo Sey – This soulful artist is Sweden's answer to Alicia Keys. Seinabo Sey's sound is smooth, her lyrics bouncy yet deep. Do yourself a favor and get listening. – Gabrielle


 
 

 
 
   

45: At least 45 people – including several children – were killed in Bulgaria Tuesday when a bus caught fire while traveling on a highway back from Istanbul. Poor infrastructure and road safety have resulted in Bulgaria recording the second-highest number of traffic fatalities in the European Union after Romania.


4: Portugal has become the fourth European country to stop burning coal to generate electricity. It has invested heavily in green energy and joins Belgium, Sweden, and Austria in ditching coal, by far the biggest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions.

200: Washington DC has recorded its 200th murder this year, a homicide rate not seen in the US capital in almost two decades. Crime has spiked in dozens of major US cities over the past 18 months, in part because the pandemic upended social safety nets, disrupted court proceedings, and cleared out jails.

6.3 million: A coalition of pro-democracy forces in Myanmar raised $6.3 million on the first day of selling what it is calling "revolution" bonds, the proceeds of which it wants to use to topple the junta that took power following a coup last February. The group, which includes the ousted civilian government, has not said how it will use the funds but hopes to raise $1 billion in the near term.


 
 

 
 

This edition of Signal was written by Gabrielle Debinski, Alex Kliment and Willis Sparks. Art by Gabriella Turrisi. Spiritual Counsel from Carlos Santamaria.